Monday, May 31, 2010

10 Ways to Save at the Pump

Follow our advice and squeeze the most mileage out of every gallon of gas you purchase this summer.

By Chuck Tannert of MSN Autos

Woman pumping gas (© BananaStock / Jupiterimages)Click to enlarge picture

Buying a hybrid isn't the only way to conserve fuel, reduce emissions and save money at the gas pump.

Travel is expected to be back on the rise this summer. Spurred by an upbeat economic outlook and lower-than-expected fuel prices, AAA estimates that more than 32.1 million people will take to the road this Memorial Day weekend, the official start of the U.S. summer driving season. That's more than a 5 percent increase over last year, and the first real uptick since the recession began two years ago.

The drop in fuel prices has caught many experts by surprise. Prices usually rise during this time of year. However, gasoline futures hit a three-month low last week and have plunged 21 percent since the beginning of May. Retail fuel prices typically follow the moves in the futures market.The average per-gallon price of regular gasoline was $2.827 a gallon on Friday, May 21, according to AAA, and has been on the decline for almost a month.

Some analysts believe this means pump prices still have room to fall, which bodes well for anyone planning a road trip. Tancred Lidderdale, a senior economist at the federal Energy Information Administration, recently told The Wall Street Journal that the EIA "expects retail gasoline prices to fall even as Memorial Day approaches."

While AAA and the EIA are upbeat, others are more cautious and question whether the low gas prices will last. "That is really going to be a function of how strong demand for gasoline is" and whether any supply can keep up, John Felmy, chief economist for the American Petroleum Institute, told The Wall Street Journal on Friday.

Some even believe that the average price of gasoline will hit $3 or more a gallon during the summer. Retail prices are already $3 a gallon on the West Coast and were closing in on that level on the East Coast and in the Rocky Mountains before futures prices collapsed. In fact, the national average cost for a gallon of gasoline is 35 cents above the price this time last year.

Either way, cash-strapped consumers will want to conserve as much as they can in order to lower fuel costs during the dog days. But that doesn't mean you have to stay at home. Here are 10 ways you can squeeze the most mileage out of every penny spent at the pump. Some involve proper maintenance of your vehicle, but most require a change in behavior. All will help ease the burden on your wallet.

Stop Driving Like a Maniac
Changing the way you drive is the most effective way to reduce the amount of fuel your car consumes. Accelerate gradually, drive smoothly and with care and you could see as much as a 33 percent gain in fuel economy on the highway and 5 percent around town, compared with what you'd get with an aggressive driving style, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. That means skipping those jackrabbit starts at stoplights and sudden pedal-to-the-metal maneuvers on the highway.

Limit Use of the Brake Pedal
Anticipate stops so you avoid sudden braking. In fact, spend as little time on the brakes as possible. "Any time you hit the brake [in a traditional gas-powered vehicle], you are throwing away energy," says Eric Kaufman, engineering manager for fuel economy and drive quality at General Motors. Take a long view of the road ahead, coasting safely to an intersection in front of you where you see traffic stopped.

Observe Posted Speed Limits
A car or truck moving at 55 mph can get about 15 percent better fuel economy than the same car going 65 mph. While each vehicle reaches its optimal fuel economy at a different speed (or range of speeds), gas mileage usually decreases rapidly at speeds above 60 mph. You can assume that each 5 mph you drive over 60 mph is like paying an additional 24 cents per gallon for gas.

Discuss:  What techniques do you use to get the most out of every tank of gas you purchase?

Use Cruise Control Whenever Possible
Sure, it's a luxury convenience. But, when used properly, cruise control can also be a fuel saver. It smoothes out driver input, helps maintain an even speed and allows the driver to take a long look at the road, rather than reacting to every little change in the surrounding traffic.

Heavy Traffic (© Corbis)

Avoid idling for more than a minute. If you're parked waiting for someone, turn the car off and then back on when they return.

Avoid Excessive Idling
Idling uses more fuel than turning the engine off and restarting it again. So if you are stopped for more than a minute, shut off the car. That means don't waste fuel by sitting in that drive-thru lane at McDonald's or Taco Bell; park and go inside instead. And shut off your vehicle while waiting outside the elementary school to pick up your children.

Turn the AC Down
When you're in slow city traffic, keep the air conditioner off, if possible. Lower the windows and open air vents to keep occupants comfortable. The air conditioner is a burden that uses fuel, and if you're tooling around town, you can see a slight improvement in gas mileage by keeping it turned off. On the highway, however, keep the windows closed and AC on low. Open windows will impede aerodynamics and hurt fuel economy.

Pulse and Glide
This is a favorite technique of so-called hypermilers, a unique breed of drivers who go to extraordinary lengths to get as much as they can from each gallon of gasoline. However, it can be done only with hybrid vehicles. The first step is to accelerate the vehicle to around 30 or 40 mph (pulse). Then, ease slightly back on the accelerator until no energy arrows appear on the energy monitor, indicating that the vehicle is neither relying on the engine nor recharging the battery. As a result, the car begins to glide. When the vehicle slows to about 30 mph, repeat the whole process again. The pulse-and-glide technique improves fuel economy by minimizing use of the internal combustion engine.

Plan Trips Ahead of Time
Combine your errands into one trip, rather than striking out multiple times during the day. Organize your stops so they're near each other and so you don't retrace your path. You may even be able to park in one central spot and walk between some of your stops, rather than driving and parking at each one. For commutes or events, organize a car pool and plan to travel during less congested times of day. When there's less traffic, you're more likely to drive smoothly. Use navigation aids on the Internet or in your vehicle to keep from getting lost — and thus wasting fuel — when you're headed to a new, unknown location.

Keep Up With Maintenance
A well-maintained vehicle operates at peak efficiency. An inefficient engine — with fouled spark plugs, for example — won't make optimal use of fuel. Be sure the air filter and the fuel filter are clean. Replace them if they're not. Even something as simple as having tires inflated to the automaker's maximum recommended pressure can improve gas mileage by as much as 6 percent, while periodic wheel alignments can help improve fuel economy up to 10 percent, according to the EPA.

Friday, May 28, 2010

America's Most Popular Prescription Drugs

A narcotic painkiller tops Forbes' list of the most prescribed medicines.

By Matthew Herper, Forbes

Find more

The most popular medicine in the U.S. was prescribed 128 million times last year, even as a panel of experts called together by the Food and Drug Administration recommended that regulators ban it.

The drug is Vicodin, a 40-year-old addictive medicine that combines the narcotic hydrocodone with acetaminophen, the active ingredient in Tylenol; the prescription tally also includes numerous generic versions. It is emblematic of the trend that emerges from our look at the most popular prescription pills: the death of the blockbuster drug.

Forbes' list of the 15 most popular drugs comes from IMS Health, a company that tracks sales at the pharmacy level for drug companies. The list shows how medicine makers are rapidly losing their grip on the average consumer. Only one drug in the top 15, Pfizer's Lipitor, is a big-selling brand-name medication. The rest are cheap generic versions of one-time big sellers that have lost their patent protection and become commodities. Generic copies of Vicodin go for 30 cents a pill, compared to $4 per pill for Lipitor.

In Pictures: The 15 Most Popular Prescription Drugs

Vicodin is a drug that is crying out to be replaced. Vicodin has a supporting role on the television show House, M.D. because the protagonist, a Sherlock Holmes-like doctor, is hooked on it. It is particularly dangerous because when patients develop a tolerance for the narcotic they start taking too much. This can lead to liver failure from overdoses of the acetaminophen component of the combo. Most of the 400 deaths due to acetaminophen poisoning each year result from misuse of the Vicodin or similar drugs. Last June an FDA advisory panel recommended banning Vicodin. The FDA is still deciding whether to take this advice.

"People are taking this as if they're taking a strong Tylenol," says Michel Dubois, director of pain medicine at New York University Langone Medical Center. There's nothing wrong with Vicodin after a surgery or tooth extraction, he says, but it's being used too often by primary care physicians with "minimal training" in dealing with chronic pain. "It has been trivialized, and it's wrong to trivialize this strong a pain medication," he says.

The failure to replace Vicodin is not for lack of trying. Pfizer once hoped its painkiller Bextra could be an alternative. But in 2005 Bextra, a chemical cousin of Merck's Vioxx pill, was pulled from the market because it increased the risk of heart attacks and allergic skin reactions. Pfizer paid a $1.2 billion criminal fine last year for marketing Bextra for unapproved uses like dental pain. Other efforts to replace Vicodin have come up short. Vicodin-maker Abbott Laboratories worked for years on a delayed release formulation but has not been able to get it through the FDA.

The second most popular drug in the U.S. is generic Zocor, or simvastatin. The cholesterol-lowering drug was once Merck's biggest seller, but Merck lost its patent protection in 2006. Doctors prescribed it 83 million times last year. One reason: It is proven to save lives, and it costs only $1 a pill, far less than Lipitor.

Zocor used to play second fiddle to Lipitor but became more popular after it went generic and health insurers pushed it as a cheaper option. Merck, Pfizer and others tried to develop new types of cholesterol drugs with little success; the cholesterol drug market is now dominated by generics.

Lipitor still wracks up $7.5 billion in annual sales, more than any other drug but only ranks seventh by popularity, with 51.1 million prescriptions last year, down from 75 million in 2005. The second-biggest seller by dollar sales is the heartburn drug Nexium from AstraZeneca. But it is a lackluster No. 19 in popularity. Overall, only eight of the 50 most popular drugs are still branded, compared to 20 in 2003, IMS says; 75 percent of all prescriptions are for generic drugs.

The third most popular drug, with 81.3 million prescriptions, is the blood-pressure-lowering medicine lisinopril, which used to be sold under the brand names Zestril and Prinivil. Overall, six of the top 15 most prescribed meds are blood-pressure-lowering drugs. There are so many good generic blood pressure drugs that it is difficult for brand-name drugmakers to improve upon them.

The No. 5 drug, azithromycin, is the generic version of Pfizer's popular antibiotic Zithromax. It tallied 53 million prescriptions last year. Like Vicodin, it's a much maligned medicine whose popularity was once blamed on overmarketing. It's not being advertised to doctors or consumers anymore, but it's still overused.

Brand name drug companies are inventing fewer drugs—a third as many were approved in 2009 as in 1999—and the ones they are inventing aren't selling. The last good year for new medicines was in 2006. Drugs launched that year generated $1.2 billion in first-year sales, says IMS. In none of the years since have drugmakers come close to this figure.

Companies are responding by trying to focus on medicines they can sell to small numbers of people at a higher price for rarer diseases like cancer, multiple sclerosis and ultra-rare genetic diseases. Ironically, that may include the next big painkiller: an injected protein drug that blocks nerve growth. It is being developed by Pfizer and could hit the market in a couple years.

The Top 5:

  1. Hydrocodone/acetaminophen (painkiller)
  2. Simvastatin (high cholesterol)
  3. Lisinopril (high blood pressure)
  4. Levothyroxine (thyroid disorders)
  5. Azithromycin (antibiotic)

In Pictures: The 15 Most Popular Prescription Drugs

More About Medications:

Beware the Husband Hunter

Why Some Women Go For Guys Who Are Taken
May 27, 2010

By Elise Nersesian

A sparkly engagement ring used to be the symbol of ultimate security for single girls. However, a dangerous ilk of women is on the rise — those who don't consider a wedding band a deterrent, while searching for Mr. Right. They crave the excitement of a passionate romance, but one with an added challenge on top. In other words: They want your boyfriend or husband and aren't the least bit afraid to go after him.

If the tabloids are any indication, one may assume that chasing married men is largely a habit formed in Hollywood — from Rachel Uchitel's recent confession to bedding actor David Boreanaz (a married father of two), to stripper Michelle “Bombshell” McGee's tryst with Sandra Bullock's soon-to-be ex Jesse James, to (insert name of stripper-Playmate-bottle girl)'s fling with shamed golfer Tiger Woods.

However, this recent batch of philandering female star-chasers is indicative of a real-life trend that's been taking place for a while, say scientists at Oklahoma State University.

In a prominent and highly publicized study, researchers divided bachelorettes into two groups and showed them photographs of a hot guy — telling one group he was single and the other he was in a relationship; then, they asked the women how likely they were to pursue him. Only when the woman believed he was committed to someone else did interest in the male subject skyrocket.

So what gives? It's not like mate poaching is a new concept. The idea of seeking several partners — even those who are taken — well, that's classic Darwinian thinking. However, some experts say the more sexual equality females gain in society, the more Rachel Uchitel types are likely to come crawling out of the woodwork.

“Research shows that in societies where women are economically powerful, the more sexually and socially aggressive they are,” says anthropologist Helen Fisher, Ph.D., author of Why We Love. “And today, with more men out of work than women (due to the recession cutting more male-oriented jobs), we're seeing women become bolder in every area of their lives.”

There's even a chemical explanation for why many women pursue guys in relationships. “Any block to romantic love drives up dopamine — a brain chemical associated with love and reward,” says Fisher. “That brain rush can feel addictive.”

And, for the female mate poacher who Oklahoma researchers say bases her self-esteem on her looks and romantic status, that brain rush can be an intoxicating and driving force, causing her to view already-committed men with rose-colored glasses.

“Men in relationships have already proven their willingness to commit, which is a major draw to these women,” says Ian Kerner, Ph.D., sex and relationship therapist. “The possibility of landing him may make her feel special and maybe even superior.”

But this high doesn't last for long. Expending all their energy on already- committed men is a risky business, says Kerner. That's because these men are often happy to have sex on the side, but are rarely willing to leave their wives or girlfriends.

Proof can be gleaned from Michelle McGee's infamous quote in Steppin' Out magazine: “I think men are made to spread their seed. Women need to accept that. If you're going to be married to somebody, you need to know that men are not meant to be with one woman. I think you can totally love your spouse and still sleep with other women. That urge will always be there, if you're a man. I believe you can love your wife 100 percent and still stray.”

But in the end, both women get shafted. “The problem is, by expending all their energy on men in relationships, female mate poachers are overlooking potential guys who could be compatible long-term mates,” says Kerner.

Yet, sometimes it does work out. Angelina Jolie — no doubt our generation's most famous mate-poacher — snatched Brad Pitt from Jennifer Aniston; five years and six kids later, they seem to be going strong. But in Angie's darkest hour, does she ever wonder whether one day she could become the next scorned wife?

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

世上没有必赢的投资

如要投资成功:

1.自己作决定,不要盲目相信投资专家或股票经纪;

2.学习管钱;

3.大部分离岸产品皆没有投资价值,但有少数例外;

4.大部分结构性产品皆隐藏风险,如自己不了解少沾手为佳;

5.不要期望证监可以保护你,证监的作用有如警察(贼过之后,警察才出现),在你被打劫之时,警察往往不知在何方;

6.不作投资不会死人,盲目投资却可以死人。

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

抽点时间读一下,思考一下!一定会有领悟滴

期货交易中的哲学智慧
一、科学在市场交易中的困惑、尴尬和无奈

投机市场是一个不确定的世界,期货交易不是一个纯粹的智力游戏,应该说既有科学的成分,更有艺术的成分。多少高智商的人在此折戟沉沙?

把投机交易终结于市场预测,以为预测就是市场交易的全部,希望找到一种科学的预测理论,是一条错误的路。

大多数市场参与者有一种认识误区:追求交易的确定性;预测制胜的思维。

1、牛顿的感叹:

1720年春天,牛顿卷入了著名的南海公司股票投机活动,南海泡沫的破灭使他最后损失了20000英镑。他可以计算天体运行的轨道,却无法计算股市的曲线和人性的疯狂。

2、1929年,英国首相邱吉尔炒股。

3、经济学无法让投机者成功?

上经济系交的学费还不如拿这钱到股票、期货市场去学习经验,那里可以学到真正如何赚钱的经济学。

4、长期资本公司的失败和索罗斯的1%理论。

长期资本公司是有两个诺贝尔奖得主挂帅的。

长期资本公司的投资理论在95%的市场状态下是正确的,能够赚到钱,但是,在1%的情况下,它会亏大钱。

在谈到长期资本公司的破产问题时,索罗斯说,我们最重视的是那个1%的时刻。

二、哲学智慧的启迪

既然我们不可能通过100%的正确预测市场价格走势取得成功,那么,期货交易的成败有没有什么规律可找呢?

如果说科学不能解决交易的成功问题,哲学有没有帮助呢?

我认为:

面对市场的不确定性,哲学的世界观、方法论和价值观,哲学的抽象思维模式,也许可以更为有效地帮助投机者把握市场运动的脉络,领悟到市场交易成功的奥秘。 www.6park.com

哲学是观察世界的角度学,思路学,思路一变,你眼中的世界也随之改变。

A、宏观、全局的眼光

哲学用粗线条、定性和模糊的语言把握市场,而科学用得是细线条、定量和精确的语言。

例如,什么是市场趋势,用科学的语言和数据很难准确定义和描述。

短期趋势、中期趋势、长期趋势,这儿的短期、中期、长期怎么鉴定?一天是短期,还是一周是短期?一个星期有人认为是中期,有人认为是短期。很难科学定义。

投机者个性化的决策、交易的时间尺度决定了他眼中的趋势。

我在《独自徘徊在天堂和地狱之间》说:

“一个投机市场的新手最渴望知道的事情是什么?

是明年的股票、期货价格?

      不!

是下个月的股票、期货价格?

不!

是下周的股票、期货价格?

不!

一个投机新手最想知道的是今天下午至多明天上午,股票、期货的价格走势如何,市场会怎么样。稍微长远一点的事情他完全不会去思考,也不感兴趣。这是一个市场新手最真实的心理状态。

所以,任何预测市场短期价格变化的工具、秘诀、技巧总是受到大众最热烈的欢迎。在他们眼里,这是最真实的,能够马上得到检验,迅速看见效果。而离他们稍远一点的东西,在他们看来,往往因为无法有立竿见影的效果而显得虚无缥缈。

眼中每天盯着市场微小变化的人,怎么能够看出市场的长远趋势呢?

但是,作为一个老练的投机者,一旦形成了最适合自己个性的交易模式和时间尺度,这个看似很困难的问题,用一种粗线条、定性和模糊的方法却可能把握的很好。这里面有经验的因素在起作用,但是,投机者具有一种宏观、全局的眼光,对交易是非常有价值的。

古人云:“取法于上,仅得其中;取法于中,故为其下。”

有人说:优秀的交易者都知道,建立在中线上的短线很好做,反之较为困难;建立在长线基础上的中线很好做。

很有道理的。

高明的投机者对市场价格变化要有宏大的视野,战略的眼光。这样才能更好的理解市场,把握市场。

B、历史的、系统的观点

我的朋友谭晓旭说:

在某种意义上讲,期货投机客和老中医是一个行当。真正的老中医年龄不会小于50岁,甚至更高。和西医相比,我认为中医更为精妙,悬脉问诊,精妙到只需一根丝线就可以诊断出你全身的阴阳是否协调,看看你的脸色就可以知道你的五脏六腑什么地方出问题。望闻问切而知阴阳调和,尤其是相同的药方可以有不同的药效,不同的药方却可以有相同的疗效!与西医相比,中医更注重身体系统,而不是病灶本身。这一点与期货交易非常相似,但你必须用时间、过程和经验去积累,时间到了,自然体会到大道至简。

C、抽象的思维特点

忽略局部、细节的运动,抓住市场运动的核心。对长线交易者来说,这是必须的.

必然和偶然的关系。

过于关注小事情的人往往对大事情一无所知;反过来,我们也可以说,对大事情有深刻洞察力的人,往往忽略细节。

D、我的市场认识理论——投机的理论、模型、假设决定市场观察和交易

对这个问题比较详细的论述非常复杂,理论、模型、假设在很大程度上决定了投机者在市场中关注什么,也决定了人们的思考、判断和行动方式。

假如你相信、选择了本杰明-格雷厄姆、沃伦-巴菲特的价值投资学说,你就根本不会试图从市场价格波动中投机赚钱,而会把精力集中在选择价格远远低与其内在价值的股票;

假如你相信市场趋势理论,认为市场价格以趋势的方式波动,那么你就会忽略市场短期随机的、偶然的变化,重点关心市场主要趋势的发展;

假如你运用某一条移动平均线作为判断市场中期走势的标准,而且行之有效,你就不会试图去理解中间过程暧昧不清的市场变化。我自己经常用55天均线把握市场、监视市场的中长期走向。

可见,一个投机者选择什么样的理论作为市场观察和交易决策的标准、依据,是一件关系重大的事情。

从心理学的角度分析,投机者在观察市场的价格变化之前就有一套系统的市场理论、框架、模型,这样的市场观察就是一种“自觉的注意”。投机者不再让市场价格变化主宰、左右自己的思维、情绪,而是以超然的态度审视市场运动,通过理论模型观测市场、寻找市场交易机会。“自觉的注意”不是由市场价格涨跌对投机者本能的吸引而引起的,这样产生的注意是 “自发注意”。大多数投机者往往在这陷入困境,一旦坐在显示屏前,就不由自主的被市场带着跑。“自觉的注意”恰恰是抑制了投机者的本能欲望、利益,而是强调关注投机者自身的主体操作过程。

三、交易策略中的哲学智慧

A、哲学辩证法:

1、没有完美的交易系统和思想

哲学辩证法是智慧的精粹,小计谋需要它,大智慧更需要它。辩证法坚持全面性,避免片面性。

天下没有完美的交易方法:这个市场永远不存在没有错误的技术和交易系统,妄图找到不犯错误的技术方法和交易系统,简直是痴人说梦。有时候能够赚到大钱,很多时候亏点小钱,是任何成功的交易方法的核心。

所以,我有一个观点,也可以叫娶媳妇理论:

你要娶一个媳妇回家,你看中的是她的优点——她长得很漂亮、她很有钱、她的父亲是部长等等。但是,回家一看,发现她还有很多不好的东西,你不喜欢的东西,但是,没有办法,你只能全部接受,要么你不娶她。

美国期货交易大师丹尼斯——趋势突破入市,长线持仓的交易理论。
一般来说,这种交易策略在市场出现大的趋势行情,有重大的价格波动发生时,往往能够取得很好的回报。例如,这几年的LME铜,国内的天然橡胶,原油等市场,利用丹尼斯的方法,有人也许就能赚到大钱。

但是,令人遗憾的是,这种交易策略也不是万能的。当市场走势出现频繁的假突破走势时,丹尼斯的手法就会吃大亏。据说,在丹尼斯退出江湖的最后一年,他在期货市场损失了一半的资产,就是因为这种假突破过多。

在选择交易方法的时候,你也面临这个问题。长线顺势交易的方法有它的优势,也有其弱点;短线交易也是。如果你只想要好的方面,把长线交易和短线交易的优点结合起来,什么钱都想赚,试图彻底打败市场,你实际得到的结果可能是最糟糕的。

2、思维的前后一致性

丁圣元先生在《投资正途》中说:投资行为模式即投资者命运。

投资行为模式包括三个层次的内容,首先是经验和习惯的层次,这是投资者根据历史经验和直觉形成的交易办法;第二个层次是一整套的投资方法,从第一层次的经验和习惯上升到程序化的投资步骤,从收集信息,到研究、决策,每个步骤都贯穿着同样的投资原则;第三个层次是投资者对市场本质的理解和把握,属于形而上的层次,是其投资方法的思想和内核,是投资方法具有系统性和一致性的根本保证。三个层次从低到高,共同形成了投资行为模式的整体,代表了投资者适应市场、减少偶然性的主动努力。

不同的路,耐心走下去,也许条条通罗马。大多数人都没有确定自己的路,为了寻找最完美的路,在各条道路之间徘徊。今天走这条路,明天走那条路,既想做长线,又要炒短线,最后迷失在路途中,而忘记了自己的目的,不能达到最终的目标。

在期货市场,面对不确定的市场变化,大多数投机者的行为是混乱无序的。他们往往长期徘徊在本能、经验和习惯的层次而无法超越。

从一个旁观者的立场,你很难看出他的下一步行动将是什么,他会做什么交易。同一个品种,一会看多买进,一会看空卖出,不可琢磨。

一句话,很多市场参与者的交易行为是漫无章法的。

而一个高明的投机者,根据历史经验和他对市场本质的认识,往往有自己明确的交易思路、交易风格,这样,他的行为一定程度上是可以预测的。在市场出现重大变化时,他可能采取什么行动,我们应该可以提前猜出来。例如,我的一个朋友,他的交易模式根据的是美国一个有名的投机大师丹尼斯的海龟交易法则。基本上,每当市场价格出现重大的波动时,我可以事先预测出他可能会做什么交易,中间差别不是很大。从市场价格波动看,未来是不确定的,我们不是神仙,所以,我们不可以说——未来是一本打开的书。

而对于一个具有明确的交易思路、交易风格的人来说,例如,对于严格按照海龟交易法则操作的人,我们可以提前知道他在投机市场的大概结果——能够赢利,未来几乎是一本打开的书,一点也不惊奇。因为这种交易策略是建立在亏小钱,赚大钱基础之上的。

当然,没有完美的交易方法,具体某一次的交易结果是会受到偶然因素的影响,局部的亏损也完全在意料之内,这是必然的。但是,从长期来看,连续很多次总的交易结果是有统计上的成功优势的。

上周末,武汉的一位朋友来北京找我。他写过一篇很好的文章。其中谈到:常于夜深人静时自问:失败之人自有失败之理,人说十年磨一剑,为何你十年竟磨不出一把菜刀?

对此,我有一个朋友,现在坐在下面,有个精彩的解释:因为今天你用一根铁棍磨;明天你用一把生了锈的剑磨;后天你用一把菜刀磨。

大多数投机者一直处在这样的迷宫中转不出来。

专业人士知道,使用一致的市场分析方法是多么重要。

3、对待交易的态度——大智若愚

里费默在做长线交易时,眼看市场回调,50万美圆的浮动赢利得而复失,不为所动。

长线交易者明明有了很大的帐面赢利,他不平仓,非要等到利润缩水,市场趋势反转才出场,看似愚笨,实则大智若愚。

不能以个别交易结果的盈亏来判断交易决策的正确与否!

在日常生活中,甚至在历史中,人们往往以成败论英雄。他们习惯以结果来判断他们先前行为的对错。所以,他们在做对事情时期待回报,在做错事情时则假定会受到惩罚。由于市场价格行为的随机性,这种看来似乎合理的评价标准,在期货交易中却是不正确的。

因为不能以交易结果的盈亏来判断交易决策模式的正确与否,这也使得学习正确的交易行为模式变得极端困难。

业余交易员通常希望亏损的次数越少越好,因为对他们而言,这些都是他们失败的标记。专业交易员已经学会处理亏损的必然性。他明白自己永远无法避免亏损,就像早晨刮胡子一样已经成为他生活的一部分。他几乎不在意亏损,除非它超过整个交易计划所容许的程度。

B、知道自己的无知——苏格拉底

1、有限理性——界定自己的能力圈

投资市场最不缺的就是机会,特别是在以高杠杆为特征的衍生品市场更是如此,市场机会是数不胜数的。然而,在纷繁的市场中,保持一丝清醒的自我认识,了解到自己作为人,存在着先天的局限性。 www.6park.com

每个人的个性不同;每个人的思维方式不完全一样;每个人的理性都有局限。作为投资者,要学会界定自己的能力圈,也就是明确自己在所投资的领域有一定的比较优势。投机者应该集中精力于自己可以理解,可以把握的市场机会。不要仅仅因为有获取大额收益的美好愿望,轻易涉足自己所不熟悉的投资领域,而失去你现在所拥有的比较优势。实际上,历史上很多优秀投资者之所以优秀是因为他们不去做自己力不能及的投资,巴菲特不去投资期权和网络股,索罗斯不去做短线交易。而有很多大投资家,在自己所擅长的投资领域内获取了巨大的利润后,态度变为轻浮,失去原来的谨慎,受周围环境和人的因素影响,去涉足自己不熟悉的投资领域,最终失去了财富。

界定好自己能力圈,提高自己在能力圈中的比较优势,把简单有效的工作重复做,成功的机率是相应会增加的。

(上面这一段话包涵的交易思想,我早就形成,别人也有。这一段文字是我的一个朋友张毅写的,因为写的很好,所以我就不费力气了,借用一下。)

2、试探——加码的交易策略。

为什么要如此做?

志在长远和安全生存。

投资经历越丰富的,越是成功的投资者,就会越来越对市场感到敬畏。 www.6park.com

生存是发展的前提和基础,没有了生存,其它的一切就会化为乌有,这也就是为什么在投资历史上,很多大炒手最后渐渐被人们所淡忘的原因所在。

3、人的本质有非理性的一面。

人的理性只是冰山之一角。

C、简单之美

1、简以制胜——交易工具的选择

今天你用 30天移动平均线入市;明天你用30分钟移动平均线入市;后天今天你用10天移动平均线入市。必然陷入混乱。

一个简单的技术工具就可能取得成果。我有一个朋友专门做狭窄盘整行情的突破交易。

《独自徘徊》:在明显的上涨或者下跌趋势中,市场价格运动到某一位置以后,在一段时间里,市场走势从前期的单边趋势行情演变为横向震荡的格局,多空之间达成了暂时的平衡。无论是技术分析的教科书还是以前我在股票市场的经验,这种图表形态都不是市场价格见顶的信号,而是市场趋势暂时的停顿。一般来说,经过一段时间的小幅震荡,市场价格最后很可能沿着原来趋势的方向前进。盘整的时间越长,往往市场积累的能量就越大,随后突破形成的爆发力就越强。

市场有时候会出现长时间狭窄盘整的行情,一旦向上或者向下突破。只要投机者及时跟进,往往是风险很小,获利潜力巨大的交易机会。

十八般武艺和精通一门。

对待这个本来极为复杂的市场,我们用复杂的交易思路只会越分析越糊涂,发现这个市场简单的一面,以简单的技术手段去把握它,这个市场不需要多么高深复杂的技术分析手段。

2、大道至简——交易的唯一原则:让利润奔跑,把亏损限制在小额。

四类错误(逆势交易、重仓交易、频繁交易、不控制风险)的核心错误。

3、投机者的交易心理、人生态度和境界问题——不能作精神上的软骨头。

有人说:交易之道由心开始,次正理念,再次策略,最后技术。而世人反其道而行之,故事倍而功半,期货交易首正其心。

交易在某种意义上说,就是一种心理游戏。心理的重要性直接影响到投机交易的成败。中国期货业协会副会长常青教授在给我的书《十年一梦---个操盘手的自白》写的序中说:

“投资其实是一个心灵升华的过程,是一场自己与自己的较量,是人类不断超越自我,克服人类性格缺点的过程。很多情况下,心理因素往往对投资结果起着决定性的作用,其重要性甚至超过知识和经验的合力。任何价格行情的变动都是波浪式发展的,许多交易者对行情的判断并没有多大的差错,但由于入市的时机选择不对,由于恐惧往往斩仓于黎明前的黑暗;许多交易者,对行情的判断是正确的,入市时机选择也较好,但由于贪婪,不断加码,重仓出击,往往在市场正常的回调当中败北。想想那些失败的人们难道不是满怀着对财富的渴望,在赚钱的头寸上长久地停留,以至于超过了合理的期望值;难道不是在价格下跌时满怀希望保留亏损头寸,痴等价格回升,而不愿止损;难道不是在机会来临时,一次重仓甚至满仓介入;难道不是试图抓住每次价格波动,而整天奔波于买卖之中呢。”

1、人间正道是沧桑

苏本华:一棵大树想要到达天空就必须进入最深的土壤,他的根必须进入地狱,深深的进入,这样树顶才能达到天空。树必须接触到两者:地狱和天堂。其实我们现在正在做的是我们的先辈曾经做过的,我们正在经历的也是我们的先辈已经经历过的,当然我们的后辈必将继续去经历,因为我们正在经历的战争的敌人只是永远的人性。

投机者良好的市场心理、心态、心境,来自于痛苦的市场经历。

据我所知,国外有好几个有名的交易员在成功以前,失败了10~15年,精神、物质、时间的付出,令人难以想象吧。很多失败者2~3年就想战胜市场,太小看期货交易的艰难性了,是远远不够的。交易成功是一条漫长的路。
前一段时间,和国内期货业翻译大家,丁先生一起聊天的时候,有一位朋友突然问了丁先生这么一个问题:面对期货交易中的巨大压力,你是如何作到“泰山崩于前而色不变的?”丁先生的回答非常坦诚:刚开始作交易时候,面对大赔大赚,我也精神紧张,浑身冒汗,后来赔疲了,心理也就慢慢不紧张了,心态也逐渐好了。

有一个朋友在解释独自徘徊在天堂和地狱之间这句话的意思时说:

“地狱的感受会在一个潜心研究的操盘手身上发生变化,比如随时间推移经验阅历愈来愈丰富,这种感觉会愈来愈少、愈来俞淡薄,而天堂的感觉愈来愈多、愈来俞浓重。十几年金融投机经历已经把作者从一个新手、老手成长为高手,一次次失败与成功经验总结,让作者着实找到通往成功的道路,在他的身后地狱越来越远而天堂闪亮在前。从这个意义上这本书也是写一个操盘手寻找投机天堂感觉并发现投机天堂的,只不过这个过程很艰难,出现了许多包括别人和自已不幸的故事。”

这是我不同意的。

我觉得中国古代哲人的话很有道理,也能表达我作为一个期货操盘手现在的心境:圣人不是无喜怒哀乐,而是圣人有情而无累。

是非成败转头空。
乱云飞渡仍从容。

程颢的诗《秋日偶成》云:

闲来无事不从容,睡觉东窗日已红。
万物静观皆自得,四时佳兴与人同。
道通天地有形外,思入风云变态中。
富贵不淫贫贱乐,男儿到此是豪雄。

2、道在伦常日用

什么叫做哲学家?康德哲学的定义:古人所谓哲学家一词一向是指道德家而言。即在今日,我们也以某种类比称呼在理性指导下表现出自我克制的人为哲学家,并不管他知识如何有限。

几十年的交易生涯中,索罗斯,巴非特的年赢利----- 复利只有30%左右。最后却创造了奇迹。最要的是长期稳定的复利增长,保持一个平和心态看待交易中顺境与逆境,着眼于时间这个最大的终裁者角度看待万物变化。

市场交易中的奇迹是怎样产生的?--- 金融投机的秘诀:复利机制。

对此,中国古代哲学早已经讲得很透彻。冯友兰先生在《中国哲学简史》中说,中国哲学总是倾向于强调,为了成为圣人,并不需要做不同于平常的事。他不可能表演奇迹,也不需要表演奇迹。他做的都只是平常人所做的事,但是由于有高度的觉解,他所做的事对于他就有不同的意义。换句话说,他是在觉悟状态做他所做的事,别人是在无明状态做他们所做的事。禅宗有人说,觉字乃万妙之源。由觉产生的意义,构成了他的最高的人生境界。

3、人生赢家,就是期市赢家

芝加哥商业交易所的广告中有这样一段话,用来描述一位差劲的投资者的特点:

“图卢兹-劳特雷克从事商品期货交易时间是否太短了?不,而是太情绪化了。劳特雷克是一位优柔寡断的人,情绪起伏不定,观点东游西击。这样的个性不适合从事期货交易。”

我认为,这个差劲的投机者的表现,不完全是期货市场的特殊性,而是一个差劲的人。一个精神上的软骨头。

思维缺乏一致性,一会这样,一会那样;

情绪支配理性。

赚点小钱——小人得志

亏点钱——怨天尤人

该止损时候不止损——侥幸心理

《独自徘徊》:

当一个投机者判断失误时,明明知道应该严格控制风险。但是,在具体执行止损操作的那一刻,他的内心仿佛竖起了一堵无形的铜墙铁壁,在艰难的阻止他向前迈出理智的一步。在天堂和地狱,成功和失败的分水岭,他开始犹豫不决,最终必然败下阵来。在期货交易中,没有人能逃避这一关的考验,只有跨过这一道坎,才能进入成功的彼岸,一旦你在关键时候退却,后面就是万丈深渊。

我武汉的一位朋友,金龙期货的老总谭晓旭这么写道:

“期市赢家,就是人生赢家;期市成败,关乎品性成败。”

“期货投资,与其说是技术,不如说是艺术,与其说是赌博,不如说是拼搏,与其说是做盘,不如说是做人。每一张单都透射出人性的色彩,品性的贵贱。 www.6park.com

高贵的人性:耐心、坚强、理性。

4、自由和必然---

行动的自由必然导致金钱的丧失和结局的不自由。

自由不是任性,你想做什么就做什么,这却是奴隶,是不自由的表现,是做了自己动物性的情绪、欲望,以及社会性的偏见、习俗的奴隶。那么,自由是什么?自由是对必然的理解和支配。

只要你和外界发生关系,必然的你要受到约束。如果你敢为所欲为,可能要受到惩罚。

本质上说,我们在这个世界中,如同小说《套中人》我们处于套子中,每一步行进都受到外围的制约。我们必须学会与外界的协调,才能让自己生活的理想些。

业余交易员与一般专业交易员的差别,在于专业人士有足够的经验学到分析方法的先天限制。

投机者的交易心理既和他的市场认识深度,交易思路有关,也有背后更深刻的综合因素——价值观、人生态度和精神境界问题。包括对待金钱的态度——太看重的人、鼠目寸光的人、只看眼前利益的人,等等,作不好期货。

中国哲学和西方哲学对交易的不同意义。

中国古代哲学,可以让投机者了解许多交易心理的问题,对投机者提高自己的修养、境界有着非常深刻的价值。例如《孙子兵法》中大量的战争心理的描述,就对期货交易非常有用。《论语》则对投机者提高自己的人生修养很有价值。宋代的一位理学大师程颐说:“读《论语》,未读时是此等人,读了后又只是此等人,便是不曾读。”这就是说,读《论语》应该使人变化气质,而不只是获得知识。期货交易作到最后,我感觉获得市场知识实在不是很难,也不是很重要,而主要的是一个投机者应该提高自己的修养、境界。不是有这样一句话吗:“期货市场上高手之间的较量绝不是技术水平上的较量,而是投资哲学的较量,心态和境界的较量。”